Day-to-Day Killings in the nation Fall Thirty-Seven Percent Under the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Official Figures

The average count of daily homicides monthly in the country has decreased by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per fresh administrative figures. But, security specialists have warned that homicide numbers may not indicate better national security.

Significant Drop in Daily Numbers

Officials reported an mean of nearly 55 homicides a day in November versus almost 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the presidency in September. This announcement was delivered by the chief of the nation's national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in killings that we have seen in these past months is very important,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, explaining that in November the lowest figure of homicides were documented for any single November in the past 10 years.

Recent Background and Government Strategy

Violent cartel internal conflicts, alongside the government’s heavily militarised campaigns to take on the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in recent times. The figure hit a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the country’s national statistics office.

That resulted in Mexico a murder rate more than 4x greater than the United States. Since then, murders have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety plan for an seemingly sharper decline in homicides this year.

At a press conference in the summer, the President stated: “We have a strategy, there is tracking of the plan, and we have specific tracking locality by locality in some cases. The approach works. And we have to keep working at it every day.”

The main pillars of the President's security strategy involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation efforts.
• Greater cooperation between various agencies.

Expert Skepticism and Data Concerns

However, public safety researchers warned that using murder numbers to draw a conclusion of improved security was flawed. This is notably true given the increase in different criminal activities such as people going missing.

“This would be excellent information if this were a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the murder numbers and think: ‘Well then, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican organised crime. “I would be guardedly optimistic.”

Per the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total dropped by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year relative to the same period the previous year. But, disappearances have risen by 15% and in some regions have surged by up to 200%.

“Statistics on murders is no longer valid for assessing the context of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who do not have the ability or the desire to correctly recognize and classify remains. Second, organized [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using monthly means of everyday killings was also problematic because it could hide days when there were especially high levels of killings.

“Employing the per-day average makes high peaks of violence less visible,” he stated.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Success

An area where the administration can highlight the effectiveness of its security strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 individuals were detained between October 2024 and this past November for serious crimes, according to government figures. Over 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tons of drugs confiscated.

“Donald Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s highly in political terms profitable,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Frustration

But despite these efforts, Mexico is still beset by severe violence, with several regions in the grip of cartel-related bloodshed. Recently there was a high-profile assassination of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders murdered in the past year.

A short time after, thousands of youth took to the streets in Mexico City and throughout the country to show their frustration at graft and narco-violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a manner to build a story of security. From a political standpoint it’s highly successful, from a social perspective it’s highly debatable,” the analyst remarked.