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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal developed with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature is expected to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president commented to the press. He stated that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Moscow sought to capture more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would serve as assurances matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. A key demand centers on Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security units instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.