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Initially, the former US president gave the impression to embrace a resolute position concerning the Ukrainian conflict. Following delivering threats of "serious ramifications" during the summer should Putin continued hindering ceasefire discussions, the former president eventually introduced considerable restrictions on the Russian biggest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move significantly impacted the Russian leader's capability to fund his aggression in the region.

Yet, with his latest 28-point peace plan for Ukraine, which was drafted by both nations' diplomats without Ukraine's or EU participation, Trump has apparently reverted to his pro-Putin approach.

Benefiting Aggression

This plan would effectively favor Putin for occupying Ukraine while leaving the country's political freedom in peril. Although bold declarations that "Ukraine's independence will be upheld", much of the proposal in reality undermine that very sovereignty. This constitutes a Moscow's wish would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his real-estate experience, the former president seems to consider the war as a simple territorial dispute, like handing Russia a part of Ukraine's soil will satisfy the leader. But, Russia's war is not simply about controlling a charred region of industrial-devastated land in the Donbas region. Instead, it's about the nation's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's obvious desire to destroy it so it stops serves as an enticing example for the Russian people of the responsible government that Putin's deepening authoritarian rule withholds them.

Border Giveaways

While maintaining in status the already divided Ukrainian provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's proposal would force the nation to give up the entire Donetsk region. Beyond favoring the Russian Federation with land that its forces have been failed to seize in over a ten years of fighting, this surrender would make Ukraine's defenses severely weakened.

This region is the place of Ukraine's highly-touted "defensive line", the entrenched defensive positions that constitute a critical obstacle to Russian advances. The proposal would have Ukraine leave these defenses, giving Putin a open path to the capital if he subsequently choose to resume the war.

Defense Limitations

Furthermore, in a action that would enable future fighting simpler for the Russian military, Trump would force the nation to cut the numbers of its military from their present 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a maximum of this lower number. Significantly, Trump's proposal sets no similar constraints on Russia's military.

Seemingly as a accommodation to Putin's efforts to portray Ukraine's legitimate leadership as Nazis, Trump's proposal declares: "Every radical doctrine and practices must be opposed and prohibited." As if to highlight this point, it demands that "Ukraine will hold political contests in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. However, Trump imposes no condition that Putin endanger his regime by conducting elections in his own country.

Defense Guarantees

Admittedly, the initiative makes the Russian Federation pledge not to "attack bordering nations" and to "incorporate in law its stance of non-violence towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". Yet taking into account that Putin has violated equivalent agreements in the history – for example the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government committed to recognize Ukraine's sovereignty in return for relinquishing its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow agreed to a truce and a handback of seized areas in the Donbas to Ukrainian control – how should anyone have confidence in Putin now?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on western protection assurances. While the proposal promises a "decisive coordinated armed reaction" if Russia renew its invasion, and states that "Ukraine will receive reliable protection assurances", the specifics vary from fuzzy to concerning. The plan would not just deny Ukraine accession to NATO but also prevent Nato members from stationing military personnel on Ukrainian territory, thus precluding the security presence, presumptively led by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to prevent Russia from replenishing his diminished troops, rearming, and reinvading.

World Concern

Another side agreement reportedly would grant the nation with a alliance-like security guarantee, in which any subsequent "serious, planned, and continuous military assault" by the Russian Federation on the country "would be considered as an attack endangering the peace and security of the transatlantic community." That suggests a armed reaction. However in contrast to a powerful Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's most reliable defense against future Russian aggression – the success of the supplementary deal would hinge on the commitment of Nato leaders, like Trump, to act with force to Putin's hostilities, something they have {not