UK Diplomats Advised Against Military Action to Overthrow Zimbabwe's Leader

Newly disclosed documents show that the UK's diplomatic corps advised against British military intervention to overthrow the then Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "serious option".

Policy Papers Reveal Considerations on Handling a "Depressingly Healthy" Leader

Policy papers from the then Prime Minister's government show officials weighed up options on how best to deal with the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old leader, who refused to step down as the country fell into turmoil and financial collapse.

Faced with the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential courses of action.

Isolation Strategy Considered Not Working

Diplomats concluded that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and forging an international consensus for change was not working, having failed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

Options outlined in the documents were:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-engage", the option advocated by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that altering a government and/or its bad policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The FCO paper dismissed military action as not a "realistic option," adding that "The only candidate for leading such a military operation is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Heavy Casualties and Legal Hurdles

It warned that military involvement would result in heavy casualties and have "considerable implications" for UK nationals in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a major humanitarian and political disaster – resulting in widespread bloodshed, significant exodus of refugees, and instability in the region – we assess that no African state would agree to any efforts to remove Mugabe by force."

The paper continues: "Nor do we judge that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would sanction or join military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Long-Term Strategy Recommended

The Prime Minister's advisor, a senior official, warned him that Zimbabwe "could become a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been ruled out, "it is likely necessary that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-engage with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, writing: "We must devise a way of exposing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then subsequently, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a firm agreement."

The departing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had advocated cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

Robert Mugabe was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, at the age of 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise the South African president into joining a armed alliance to overthrow Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the former UK premier.